Largely consistent with the previously communicated weather forecast, Hurricane Erin remains on course to pass north-northeast of Saba on Saturday afternoon. While the system is not expected to have a direct impact, adverse weather conditions are still likely.
Residents are advised to prepare accordingly as strong thunderstorms are forecast to develop later in the evening.
According to the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Hurricane Erin is projected to pass approximately 192 miles (311 kilometers) north-northeast of Saba around 1:00 p.m. on Saturday, August 16, as a Category 2 hurricane. The likelihood of experiencing tropical storm–force winds on the island remains relatively low, estimated at 10 to 15 percent. However, forecasts indicate sustained winds at Force 6, with gusts between 40 and 45 miles per hour (60 to 75 kilometers per hour), accompanied by a high probability of strong thunderstorms. Sea conditions are expected to be moderate to rough, with northeast swells affecting coastal areas.
The potential for heavy rainfall remains the main concern and is forecast to total between 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 millimeters), with a small 5 percent chance of more intense rainfall reaching 4 to 6 inches (100 to 150 millimeters). These conditions may lead to isolated flash flooding, localized urban flooding, and possible landslides or mudslides. As a result, access to Saba’s roads could be limited over the weekend. Residents are encouraged to complete any necessary shopping or preparations today, as conditions are expected to gradually improve and return to normal by Monday, August 18.
Travel to and from Saba will not be possible on Saturday, August 16. All Winair flights have been cancelled for that day, and charter flights are also expected to be suspended. The Makana Ferry Service has cancelled all routes for both Saturday and Sunday. Travelers are advised to check directly with their providers for itinerary updates or changes.
The public is strongly urged to remain alert, take all necessary precautions, and ensure that homes and surroundings are secure. Please stay informed through official channels and check on neighbors, particularly those who may need assistance or have limited access to timely updates. Authorities will continue to closely monitor Hurricane Erin and provide further updates as the situation develops.
For official guidance on hurricane preparedness, visit: https://www.sabagov.nl/.../disaste.../hurricane-preparedness
Weather Update: Hurricane Erin – Expected to Pass North-Northeast of Saba
